Caribbean Can Expect More Comfortable Temperatures Over Next Three Months

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook (CariCOF) says over the next three months, the cool season will feature more comfortable temperatures and humidity.

It said that the period December to February next year, also marks the early dry season in the Caribbean Islands and Belize and the long dry season in the far interior of the Guianas, with fewer wet days and spells of heavy showers by February.

“There is a concern for moderate drought in areas with ongoing rainfall deficits and short dry spells should become more frequent, particularly in northwest Belize,” kt said, however, noting that “the potential for flooding and cascading hazards will be mostly moderate through December, but high in mountainous areas.

“In the coastal Guianas, the secondary wet season may end up drier than usual, but flood potential remains high through January,” CariCOF in the latest publication of its “Outlook” bulletin.

It said that as of November 1 this year, severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in Belize, French Guiana, Guyana, and Suriname; and that long-term drought has developed in parts of eastern Cuba, Grenada, Saint Vincent, and Tobago.

At the end of February next year, short-term drought is evolving in northern Belize, southern French Guiana, Grenada, western Puerto Rico, northern and  central Suriname, and might possibly develop or continue in many other areas across the Caribbean.

CariCOF said the extremely warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean and this year’s El Niño are expected to last, meaning unusually high air temperatures will most likely prevail in many locations through May 2024, particularly at night.

“Fortunately, these unusually high temperatures should not pose significant heat stress until March, after which the Caribbean heat season is expected to get off to an intense start in April and May, with heat stress on the rise.

“The risk of severe weather impacts, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards should be low in February and March, but may sharply rise in April. However, a real chance exists that the peak of the dry season will be unusually intense, resulting in growing drought concerns, particularly in Belize and the Guianas,” CariCOF added.