Region Records Slight Increase in Tourism Arrivals Amidst Softening Demand From North America

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organization(  CTO) says tourist arrivals to the Caribbean region grew by nearly two per cent  during the first half of 2025, despite softening demand from North America.

Speaking during the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference (SOTIC) taking place here through Friday, the CTO’s database administrator, Paul Garnes, said that overall, the region still recorded arrivals 6.1 per cent above 2019,  pre-pandemic levels.

“Considering tourist arrivals then, in the first half of the year 2025, the Caribbean tourism industry showed strong resilience, continuing to grow despite external challenges,” Garnes said.

He said stay over arrivals remained above 2024 and pre-pandemic, 2019 levels, signaling sustained recovery, noting that while growth has moderated compared to the sharp rebound of recent years, the sector continues to move positively forward.

Preliminary estimates show 18.5 million arrivals in the first six months of 2025, up from 18.2 million in 2024 and 17.5 million in 2019, reflecting a 1.9 per cent year-on-year increase and a 6.1 per cent increase over 2019 levels.

Performance differed across Caribbean destinations, but the majority of the 24 reporting destinations achieved positive growth.

“Fifteen destinations reported higher arrivals compared to the same period in 2024,” Garnes said, adding that the top performers were Guyana. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Curacao, Trinidad and Tobago and Dominica.

Declines range from one per cent to 10.7 per cent, driven mainly by external   shocks, recovery from environmental events and natural limits on further rapid expansion.

At the half-year mark, most Caribbean destinations recorded arrivals above pre-pandemic levels, underscoring resilience and continued growth, Garnes said, adding that among the 17 destinations with growth, expansion ranged from 1.3 per cent to 68.2 per cent, compared to 2019.

“By contrast, a smaller group of destinations still lag behind pre-pandemic volumes, showing an uneven pace of recovery,” he said.

The monthly data, however, show that some of the uncertainty and volatility at the start of the year has begun to settle.

During the first quarter of the year, arrivals dipped 0.6 per cent compared to 2024, linked to softer demand, reduced airlift and seasonal timing. Despite the dip, volumes during the first quarter were still 3.6 times higher than in 2019, showing that the long-term recovery trend remains intact.

However, second quarter tells a much stronger story with monthly arrivals to the region ranging between 2.8 and 3.1 million tourists.

Compared to 2024, April was up 8.4 per cent; May, 2.2 per cent and June, 3.7 per cent, with overall growth in Q2 rising to 4.8 per cent, representing some 8.9 million visitors to the region.

“This growth has more than offset the small dip in quarter one, showing clear momentum as the year progressed.”

Garnes said several factors boosted this rebound, including the fact that Easter was in April this year,  the international cricket series with Ireland and England, the delayed Liberation Day tariff changes, expanded marketing, better air connectivity and new hotel capacity.

“When compared to pre-pandemic levels, quarter two was particularly strong, up nearly 9 per cent over 2019, a clear sign that the region is on a growth trajectory.”

Garnes said the overall performance showed a softening in major northern markets driven by economic uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior.

This was partially onset by stronger demand from South America.

However, the United States continues to be the region’s main market, comprising about half of all visitors to the region, followed by Europeans with 14 per cent and Canadians –just under 10 per cent.

At the same time, just over nine million people visited the Caribbean from the United States, which was generally flat compared to 2024.

However, the United States remains the Caribbean’s anchor market, making up nearly half of all the visitors, though growth momentum has slowed.

Meanwhile,  Aliyyah Shakeer, the CTO’s director of research, said data from the first quarter of 2025 show that room rates in the region continue to rise even as occupancy slipped.

Shakeer said the average daily rate rose just over three per cent, reaching US$424 but occupancy slipped by 1.4 per cent to 73 per cent.

“But even with that, the overall room revenues still grew by almost three per cent, held by a steady supply, which was up just less than one per cent,” she said, adding that it appears that 19 properties are under construction across the region.

In terms of the short-term rentals, data from Airbnb collected by CTO for 24 destinations in the region showed the sector stayed relatively strong in 2024.

“By the end of 2024, there were about 79,500 active listings across the region, and this was up just 10 per cent compared to 2023,” Shakeer said.

“However, as we fast forward into the first quarter of 2025, we saw a small dip or small pullback in listings — about 78,000; but compared to the same time in 2024, it is still a healthy increase of more than five per cent.”

Shakeer said the activity numbers tell a much stronger story, with check-ins rising by 7 per cent and room nights jumping by 12 per cent

“So altogether, this means that there were 1 million check-ins and 5 million room-nights per the short-term rental economy in just the first three months of the year. What’s more is that the average length of stay is moving upwards, moving from 4.4 days to 4.6 days,” Shakeer said.