BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The number of Canadian visitors to the Caribbean fell by nine percent to 1.67 million, while arrivals from Europe dropped by an estimated five percent to 2.53 million during the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year.
Database administrator at the Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), Paul Garnes, said that in the case of Canada, this was due to softer demand tied to weaker consumer confidence, higher travel costs and currency events.
Garnes told the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference taking place here through Friday that while Europe remains an important market to Caribbean tourism, demand is under pressure due to economic headwinds and or stronger competition from other destinations.
He said intra-Caribbean travel registered 560,000 arrivals, representing 1.2 percent growth, adding, “this continues to support regional resilience”.
South America was another “bright spot” with arrivals jumping more than 25 percent, moving from 790,000 to just under one million.
“And then in other markets, including Asia, Africa, and others, we saw solid double-digit growth, up 12 percent to nearly 3.8 million arrivals,” Garnes said, adding that this shows that the Caribbean is diversifying beyond traditional source markets.
Garnes said a closer look at Canada showed Canadian outbound travel took a hit in the first half of 2025, especially as the United States tariffs, trade tensions and broader uncertainty pushed many Canadians towards domestic trips and alternative destinations.
For the Caribbean, about 1.7 million Canadian tourists visited between January and June, down just over nine percent from last year.
“And it pulled our recovery rate back from nearly 86 percent of 2019 levels in 2024 to 78 percent this year. “
From January to March, arrivals dropped sharply, down 12 percent in January, 15 percent in February, and 10 percent in March.
“These losses were even deeper when compared to 2019, with winter months still 27 percent to 31 percent below pre-pandemic levels,” Garnes said, noting that the downward trend continued in April and May, though the contractions were smaller.
In the month of June, there was a rebound as arrivals grew nearly seven percent year-on-year, even as that month was 11 percent less than 2019 volume.
“So when we look at Canadian arrivals by destination, the results were very uneven,” Garnes said, adding that of the 19 CTO reporting destinations, only eight recorded growth in the first half of the year.
“Increases range from a small two percent to a strong 36 percent. Bermuda, Curacao and Aruba were the top-performing destinations for Canadians. Looking further back to 2019, only six destinations have fully recovered their pre-crisis volumes. For the rest, Canadian arrivals are still below 2019 levels.”
Garnes said the European economy showed moderate growth in the first half of 2025, supported by services and manufacturing.
“Inflation eased, employment held steady, and discretionary spending improved, factors that helped sustain outbound travel,” he said, noting that long-haul travel from Europe is rebounding, but destination performance still depends heavily on how each market is recovering and where travelers choose to go.
By the end of June, about 2.5 million Europeans had visited the Caribbean, down almost five percent from last year and 17 percent below pre-crisis levels.
“Month by month, arrivals were weak,” Garnes said, adding that the first quarter saw declines averaging around 7.5 percent.
“April was the lone bright spot, with a very slight uptick, but May and June slipped again. Overall, quarter two fell by a smaller margin, about two percent. Compared to 2019, recovery rates vary widely, from just under 70 percent in January to nearly 93 percent in May.”
Garnes said most Caribbean destinations saw declines in arrivals from Europe.
“Only seven of the 19 reporting destinations grew in the first half, led by Guyana, Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda. Growth ranged from just under two percent to about 36 percent,” Garnes said.
“So, looking at recovery since 2019, just six destinations have fully surpassed three pandemic levels, with gains from two to 79 percent.”
Overall, tourist arrivals to the Caribbean grew by 1.9% during the first half of 2025, despite softening demand from North America.
Garnes said that overall, the region still recorded arrivals 6.1 percent above 2019 — pre-pandemic — levels.
“Considering tourist arrivals then, in the first half of the year 2025, the Caribbean tourism industry showed strong resilience, continuing to grow despite external challenges,” Garnes said.
