WASHINGTON, DC – The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) says while near-term risks are leaning to the downside for Suriname because of the current geopolitical context, the medium-term outlook remains favourable, anchored in expected oil-driven growth and improved fiscal and external dynamics.
The IDB said that recent economic developments in Suriname reflect a combination of temporary shocks and underlying structural transitions.
It said economic growth decelerated to around 1.5 per cent in 2025, down from 1.7 per cent in 2024, primarily driven by a contraction in gold production despite high international prices.
“This slowdown masks relative resilience in non-resource sectors, which have continued to expand robustly. Looking ahead, growth is expected to recover to about 3.9 per cent in 2026 and stabilise at around four per cent in the near term, supported by strengthening domestic demand and investment,” the IDB said in its latest report titled ““Fiscal Resilience, Debt Reduction and Domestic Resource Mobilization in the Caribbean”.
It said that over the medium term, the outlook is highly influenced by large-scale oil investments. In 2028, real economic growth is projected to reach 28.5 per cent, reflecting the base effect of first-oil production at the GranMorgu offshore oil field, which is, until now, a one-time spike in output rather than a structural acceleration.
According to the IDB report, Suriname’s main challenge is diversifying Its economic base as the economic structure of the Dutch-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) country e remains highly concentrated in natural resources.
It said mining, particularly gold, has traditionally been the backbone of economic activity, accounting for most exports (84 per cent) in 2025, while oil played a smaller but growing role (eight per cent) during the year.
However, the economy is entering a transformational phase with large-scale investments in offshore oil and gas. In this context, the extractive sector will shift from a gold-centered model to an oil-driven economy.
“This shift is expected to reinforce the extractive sector’s dominance within the economy, potentially overshadowing other industries, and shaping the country’s development trajectory for years to come.
“Suriname has the chance to turn its natural resource wealth into lasting prosperity by moving beyond extraction. Unlocking Suriname’s future growth hinges on nurturing these sectors with high potential, particularly those anchored in sustainable natural resources such as tourism and ecotourism, where the country’s cultural diversity is a key asset.”
The IDB report said that likewise, sustainable agribusiness, including modernized agriculture and responsible fisheries, can drive job creation and broaden the economic base if supported by investments in technology, research, and infrastructure.
In addition, sectors such as food and beverage processing and renewable energy present substantial opportunities for diversification and long-term development. Fostering these industries will not only broaden Suriname’s economic base but also support inclusive and resilient growth for the country’s future.
Suriname has recently strengthened its fiscal framework through the introduction of fiscal rules and the reform of the Savings and Stabilization Fund of Suriname (SSF) which aims to ensure macroeconomic discipline and the sustainable management of natural resource revenues.
The IDB said that the framework establishes targets for public debt and limits on expenditure, while mandating that all mineral revenues be channeled into the SSF, which will operate independently and invest largely in foreign assets.
“The authorities are still working to make both the fiscal rules and the SSF fully operational and effective in practice. In addition to ongoing economic reforms, a favorable final investment decision for the GranMorgu offshore oil field in Block 58, where production is expected to begin in 2028,is driving a positive medium-term outlook.”
The IDB said that the SSF is a crucial component of Suriname’s long-term financial and macroeconomic health. Suriname’s implementation and operation of the fiscal frameworks and savings mechanism approved in 2024, together with its continued macroeconomic discipline and active policies to support non-resource sectors, provide a sound basis for meeting this challenge.
“Without these mechanisms, there is a risk that the economy will deepen its dependence on volatile commodities rather than achieve a more resilient and diversified growth path. The effectiveness of institutions, notably the SSF, is a crucial step toward transforming Suriname’s resource wealth into lasting, inclusive prosperity, ensuring that large oil export earnings are strategically invested in the economy.
“As the SSF becomes fully operational, it will help to stabilize growth and promote sustainable development, preventing resource flows from driving short-term, procyclical spending,” the IDB report noted.
The Washington-based financial institution said that phasing out subsidies and improving tax administration helped to reduce the fiscal deficit from 12 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 9.6 per cent of GDP in 2025.
In addition, because of a restructuring plan adopted years ago between the government and its main creditors, public debt dropped significantly from 121 per cent of GDP in 2020 to 100 per cent in 2025.
“Projections indicate that both the fiscal deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio will keep declining. However, fiscal outcomes moderated in 2025. The overall fiscal deficit widened sharply from about 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 9.6 per cent in 2025, reflecting pre-election fiscal slippage, increased subsidies, and one-off central bank recapitalization”
The IDB said while revenues increased modestly, expenditure growth significantly outpaced them, interrupting the consolidation path.
As of July 1, 2026, the 2026 budget had been approved, with a projected deficit of around 5.1 per cent of GDP. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections show that fiscal balances are expected to improve gradually as oil production ramps up, with the deficit narrowing to around 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2026 and eventually turning into a surplus over the medium term.
The IDB said that as a small, open economy heavily reliant on imports, Suriname faces substantial macroeconomic challenges regarding inflation and exchange rate depreciation.
It said given ongoing geopolitical conflicts, Suriname is more vulnerable to rising oil prices despite being an oil producer because it relies more on imports than it gains from exports. “With oil and gas making up over a third of the country’s energy mix, domestic energy costs are highly influenced by fluctuations in global oil prices. Although inflation dropped sharply from 60 per cent in 2020 to 13 per cent by the end of 2025, it has remained relatively high during 2026 as inflationary pressures increase.
“Despite renewed foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank, the Surinamese dollar depreciated by about nine per cent against the US dollar between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025, increasing import costs and fueling inflation in an economy heavily dependent on imported goods.
“To limit the impact of international oil price increases on society, a temporary price cap method was introduced in the first quarter of this year, thereby placing additional pressure on government finances,” the report noted.
